Posted in Blog on Dec 20, 2024.
The Future, Right Now!
‘How to think long-term: training session’ - Future Hub Wales.
Author: Sophie Spooner
Up early on the morning of 26 November, 2024, with the blessing of seeing a stunning sun-rise, and on the road to the capital for a training session by Future Hub Wales: How to think long-term. This training and development session was brilliantly led by Petranka Malcheva and Holly Butterworth, who were engaging, knowledgeable, warmly personable and delivered a succinct and fluid programme, which helped to framework futures thinking and the relevance to each and every one of us, regardless of field of work or way of life.
This was an interactive training session that encourages and equips you to think about applying long-term thinking to the way that you work. Approaching the way that you work and how you make decisions through a long-term lens. Adopting foresight methods as best practice, of which we were introduced to several techniques, then broke out into small groups to focus on applying the PESTLEC method. Interesting discussions emerged from our group evolving from the process of applying this particular technique with some useful insights into how to measure the impact and certainty of factors in a specific scenario.
Applying Foresight and long-term thinking is a way of working which is hinged on balance: addressing current and short term needs while balancing these needs with longer-term needs, with the needs of future generations.
The Wellbeing of Future Generations (Wales) Act defines long-term thinking as: “The importance of balancing short-term needs with the need to safeguard the long-term needs, especially where things done to meet short term needs may have detrimental long-term effects.”
The 7 well-being goals were covered at the start of the training, to put the concept of futures thinking into context:
A prosperous Wales; A Resilient Wales; A More Equal Wales; A Healthier Wales; A Wales of Cohesive Communities; A Wales of Vibrant Culture and Thriving Welsh Language; and A Globally Responsible Wales.
Along with the 7 goals, the act identifies 5 ways of working, from a sustainable development principle, of which long-term working is not only 1 of these ways of working but also a philosophy the Act is rooted in:
* Long-term. The importance of balancing short-term needs with the needs to safeguard the ability to also meet long-term needs.
* Integration. Considering how the public body’s well-being objectives may impact upon each of the well-being goals, on their objectives, or on the objectives of other public bodies.
* Involvement. The importance of involving people with an interest in achieving the well-being goals, and ensuring that those people reflect the diversity of the area which the body serves.
* Collaboration. Acting in collaboration with any other person (or different parts of the body itself) that could help the body to meet its well-being objectives
* Prevention. How acting to prevent problems occurring or getting worse may help public bodies meet their objectives.
The Well-being of Future Generations Act has at its heart the concept of long-term thinking to improve the quality of life for all. “The Well-being of Future Generations Act is about improving lives now, next year, in 25, 50, 100 years into the future – and more.” Derek Walker, Future Generations Commissioner for Wales.
An aspect of Futures Thinking that resonates with me, is this way of thinking encourages imagination, creativity, intuition, inviting you to explore, what could be possible - to bring to life multiple potential futures, a variety of possible scenarios. As a large portion of my work and my passion lies in communicating, writing about initiatives, sharing narratives, telling stories; I gravitate to the ‘imagining’ aspect of futures thinking, the telling of stories where possible events in the future have happened, enabling possible scenarios, consequences and outcomes to these events to be imagined.
By creating visions of the future, we have a better chance of making the right decisions now to enable that future.
We have been saturated with a host of possible dystopian futures in literature and film. Although there is merit in imagining not so attractive visions of the future, in order to have the foresight to consider the consequences of such futures were they to materialise, with the intention of taking preventative action, I am keen to imagine, and to see and read others’ imaginings, of a range of positive potential futures, that we can create into being, by the choices we make now.
Instead of (what can feel like) hurtling towards and arriving at *the future* haphazardly, I like the idea of imagining and creating the (collaborative) future we want: putting preferred visions of the future out there! Long-term thinking helps us to be proactive, to anticipate, so we don’t ‘sleepwalk into the future.’ It’s not about predicting the future, it’s about the ability to create the idea of multiple futures, about imagining what we want to happen in the future and basing decisions we make now, rooted in this process. Futures and long term thinking enables choices.
Instead of the unpredictability of the future being a scary thing: it can be seen as an opportunity to influence the type of future we have. An inspiring quote gleaned from this session - “Leverage uncertainty, rather than fearing it: we can’t predict the future, but we can understand the role of uncertainty and how we can leverage it to drive our vision and objectives forward.” Long-term thinking can help us navigate uncertainty and build resilient systems. Long-term thinking can help us to make choices about the type of future we want. Intuitive thinking. Possible futures.
Long-term thinking can help bring about systematic change by creating a vision to aspire and work towards, enabling us to make policies and laws that enable that vision of the future, a bit like creating a pathway, portal, or trail of breadcrumbs, representing the long-term thinking decisions we make, stepping towards positive futures with each breadcrumb of a decision.
It can also be helpful to look to the past, and learn from the past, from traditional methods and from lessons we have learnt. But in an unpredictably fast-changing world, with an unpredictable future, we cannot rely solely on the past, to interpret the future and we would benefit from a combined approach, along with a combination of methods.
I see the process as nonlinear and simultaneous – the past, present and future are all part of the process. All interconnected, all existing; all relevant; reminding me of wise words from Mamphela Rampele, “The future is not a vague concept; it is here. And if we take it this way, it deepens our responsibilities beyond just people here.” (19 June 2024. BRIDGES/LPI Intergenerational Meet & Greet at the Learning Planet Institute, “What does it look like, to make policies future-generations ready?”)
Although the world we live in is rapidly changing, and the future is unknown and unpredictable; the future exists in our imagination, giving us the opportunity to imagine, create, and explore what the future could be, enabling us to anticipate, adapt, and prepare.
We can utilize a combination of knowledge from the past, our understanding of current conditions, and our experience, in conjunction with anticipation, to help us decide on the best course of action to take now, that also safeguards the future. We can shape the future we want to have, collectively, rather than accepting a future we haven’t chosen.
This training session on long-term thinking helped us to root our learning in scenarios that we might experience in our work, where putting this way of making decisions into action, can be helpful, for example; when working on a new strategy or corporate plan, helping us take an outcome-focused approach, driven by our desired vision for the future. Long-term and futures thinking and applying foresight techniques is a useful process in discussions with partners and stakeholders: an impactful route to reaching a shared understanding of the present, co-creating a vision for the future, and a establishing a plan to reach these objectives.
I’m interested in the 6 ways to think long term that we were introduced to, I see all as interdependent and interconnected:
Following this insightful training session my understanding of long-term thinking and foresight techniques is enriched and my interest in this area has deepened. I look forward to learning more and applying this way of thinking more fully in the way that I work and live my life.
Here you can read more about long-term thinking, with guidance and resources on how to apply long-term thinking, from a place of “acting today for a better tomorrow.” Thinking about the future helps us to navigate the uncertainty of a changing, complex world, by preventing problems and becoming proactive rather than reactive to the challenges we are facing on a local and global level.
It might make it easier to get into the futures thinking mindset by making it personal, The Office of the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales suggests thinking about “the youngest person you know. What will their life look like in 2050? What about 2100? What will they eat? Where will they live? How will they celebrate their birthday?
Now imagine the invisible link that connects you in the present to that image of the future. How will your decisions today impact their future in 2100? How can we be the good ancestors our future generations need, and leave a better world behind us?”
I encourage everyone to take a look at the Well-being of Future Generations Act, which “requires public bodies in Wales to think about the long-term impact of their decisions, to work better with people, communities and each other, and to prevent persistent problems such as poverty, health inequalities and climate change.” The Act is a useful guide for everyone, not just public bodies, and can be applied to all areas of life.
The Act is being recognised across the globe, recently winning an award from the World Future Council. The 2024 World Future Policy Award recognised “policies advancing peace and securing a better future for generations to come.” From 47 nominations across 29 countries, four outstanding Award Winners were selected, of which The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act, is one!
In September 2024, The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act inspired the adoption of the UN Declaration on Future Generations, at the United Nations’ Summit of the Future! UNESCO-MOST BRIDGES collaborated with the Office of Future Generations, and many other respected partners, on a side-event at the Summit of the Future, From Idea to Action and Impact: mobilizing the outcomes of the Summit of the Future, based on the excellent recommendations outlined in the Wales Wellbeing of Future Generations Act, where discussions explored implementing these at a global level. BRIDGES also contributed to the Wales Protocol for Future Generations, a reference document and guide aimed at governments and stakeholders to assist efforts in promoting and implementing the Declaration for Future Generations, and to the internal consultation for the Zero Draft of the UN Pact for the Future Zero Draft of the UN Pact for the Future - BRIDGES.
Because of the work taking place with UNESCO-MOST BRIDGES in this area, deepening my understanding of Futures Literacy, foresight and long-term thinking feels like a relevant and important step to take, to assist me to perform my role to its fullest; But more significantly, it’s the right step to take as a human being, on this planet, who cares about the world we live in, and the lives of current generations and those not yet born.
Considering the process of long-term thinking, forecasting and futures thinking methods, in more depth, has been a really interesting process for me. There are lots of resources available if you’d like to discover more, for example, UNESCO’s Futures Literacy & Foresight | UNESCO is a useful resource. “Being futures-literate empowers the imagination. It enhances our ability to prepare, recover and invent in the face of change.”
My dear colleague, Dr. Nsah Mala, co-ordinator of the BRIDGES University of Cologne Planetary Hub for Wellbeing, is doing excellent and dedicated work in this area; you can read more about Nsah’s and the efforts of the BRIDGES coalition, here.
When we think about the future, we anticipate, imagine, create - which influences and enlightens the decisions we make now - allowing us to choose routes to possible, plausible, experimental, desirable futures. Considering, and putting the future at the root of our decision making process, we give opportunity and potential to our desired vison of the future. We have choices. Together, let’s make the right ones!
Here, you can find a tool called the Ways of Working Progress Checker, that will help organisations work towards applying sustainable development in the ways that they work.
Here you can find a host of resources drawn from partner organizations in the Summit of the Future session: Futures in Action - Center for Science and the Imagination
